My 12-year-old daughter started the new school term and returned home with a letter recommending that she be vaccinated against HPV, thus protecting her against cervical cancer.

As someone who has some background in statistical analysis, I am more than a little concerned by the bad science that seems to surround the HPV vaccination.

Most (95%) of people who contract HPV will get rid of it, without help, within two years.

Assuming adherence to a screening programme, less than seven in 100,000 people will develop cancer in their lifetime.

The studies conducted by the drugs companies themselves report that the number of people who are vaccinated and will develop cancer will run between nine and 14 in 100,000 people.

Yes, taking the vaccine and foregoing screening will actually increase your risk – this is because the vaccine only protects against 70% of cancer causing strains. But there is another concerning aspect. Studies to date have shown that protection is only effective for five to 15 years depending on vaccine used. My concern is therefore fourfold.

Firstly, parents are not being told that even with the vaccine, their daughter should still follow screening recommendations (note that for people who are not protected by vaccine and not screened, lifetime risk increases to 90 in 100,000).

Secondly, vaccinating 12-year-olds will potentially leave them unprotected during their most sexually active time of life.

Thirdly, the cost of this programme of vaccination is estimated at £100m per year, but, because of the limited efficacy described above, existing screening programmes will have to be maintained.

Fourthly, it is not well-publicised that while seven in 100,000 regularly screened women will develop cancer without the vaccine, 3.4 people of every 100,000 vaccinated will develop a serious reaction to the vaccination itself.

Parents would be well advised to seek further information before making a decision on vaccination.

Googling “Diane Harper gardasil” will lead you to interviews with Dr Diane Harper, who was the lead researcher responsible for clinical trials of both Gardasil and Cervarix.

Suffice to say, the marketing and the reality do not match up.

John Innis, “Innisfree”, Alton Lane, Cerne Abbas