UP TO 175,000 people could be affected if a pandemic sparked by bird flu hits Dorset, it was warned today.
Experts issued a 'don't panic' plea and stressed that contingency plans were being put in place in case of an outbreak.
The comments came after cases of avian influenza - bird flu - were found in poultry in farms in Turkey and Romania.
Dr Mark Salter, consultant in communicative disease control at the Dorset Health Protection Unit, said that about 25 per cent of Dorset's 700,000 population could be affected, with a death rate of 0.37 per cent if a flu pandemic hit.
He said: "We have to be prepared to deal with all eventualities. We are all geared up as are the laboratories so that if we have any suspect cases samples can be taken immediately."
The estimated figures for an outbreak in Dorset are based on previous pandemics, such as the 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu of 1968.
The concerns come after avian flu spread in the far east over the past three years. A total of 117 humans contracted the flu with 60 deaths.
But experts said that the victims would have need to have been in very close contact with their animals. They say that a pandemic - or major outbreak - would hit if the bird flu virus was passed to a human already suffering with normal human flu and evolved into a mutant strain able to infect other humans.
The two viruses could get into the same cell and swap genes to produce a dangerous hybrid that sparks a global human epidemic.
Fears have grown that a killer strain of flu could strike as cases of the virulent H5N1 strain of avian flu moved closer to Europe with cases in Turkey.
Dr Slater said that pandemics also tended to go in cycles of 39 years, with renewed speculation about an outbreak as the last was 37 years ago in 1968.
Councils, primary and acute health trusts, police, fire and ambulance services and voluntary groups have joined in preparations and contingency plans. Businesses have been warned of the impact large scale absences could have if the pandemic strikes.
Preventative measures include ensuring there is the right medical provision and facilities in place along with rapid treatment and that businesses and key organisations are able to continue to function.
Dr Salter said there were some drugs in place that might be of use if administered in the first couple of days of illness when the first wave of a pandemic hits.
A vaccine would only be created when the strain is identified and analysed, and that it would then be used against the second wave of an outbreak.
But large gatherings could be restricted during an outbreak and travel curtailed to and from some countries.
Dr Salter said: "Locally, we will implement all measures we think appropriate unless they contradict orders we are getting from higher up."
People who have an annual flu jab are being urged to take it as normal.
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