One week into the football season and my three homes sunk without trace at the first attempt, so I've decided to seek some advice on how to make winning selections.
There are several myths associated with trying to predict football results, most of which are not true, so if I ignore these myths winner spotting should be easy.
It is easy to find three teams that should win at home. It is easy to look at the fixtures and find three teams who are certainties to win at home, judged on all previous form. The problem is, one of them invariably doesn't win. Just ask the so-called band of experts who contribute to this column every week. Hope and expectancy far outweigh reality, as the axe falls.
The team need the points. Towards the end of the season teams who need points for promotion or to stave off relegation are more likely to win. Not so. Normally a team needs points to stave off relegation because it has been playing so badly during the season that it hasn't got many points.
It is just as likely to play as badly in it's next game. Teams at the top and bottom gain as many points in August as they do in May.
The other team will be tired. Normally heard after a European game. A two-hour flight from Spain on a Tuesday is going to tire the team out. A four-hour journey stuck in motorway roadworks on a Friday or Saturday is far more exhausting.
The game has nil-nil written all over it. All games have nil-nil written all over them until someone scores. A game between two low scoring teams means that they are both useless, normally in defence as well as attack, and the result is just as likely to be 3-3 as 0-0.
It's harder to play against ten men than 11. An excuse made by a manager when his team wouldn't have scored even if the opposition had eight men. Teams playing against opponents who are a man short don't usually lose, unless they are 5-0 down when the opponent is sent off.
The cup is a great leveller. Farnborough will beat Arsenal every time they play them. Cup shocks are reported because they are the exception rather than the rule. There are far more games that go to form than do not in cup competitions. When was the last FA Cup Final between Rochdale and Rotherham?
It's a game of two halves. Correct. 45 minutes each half. A team that is hopeless in the first half might be marginally less useless in the second half, but there again so might their opponents, so the net result is still the same.
Armed with this information, Billy the Kid has
chosen this week's three homes and has come up with West Brom, Brentford and Yeovil. I wish him luck.
Move It won at Ascot last weekend at 9-2, and this week I think that Fantasy Believer would be an appropriately named winner at Ripon, while Tarjman can win at Newbury.
The last Major golf tournament of the season, the USPGA takes place at Oakhills New York at the weekend. Tiger Woods must be due to win a Major, with Vijay Singh and David Toms as his closest rivals. Darren Clarke could lead the European challenge.
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