PACK up your parasol and put away that deckchair - this summer will, in all probability, bear a marked resemblance to most of the others, except that there will be a bit more sun and some higher temperatures.

That's the official story behind this week's "Scorching summer" headlines, and predictions of temperatures of 101 degrees. According to the Meteorological Office, that is.

Press Officer Barry Gromett blamed a newspaper for sparking off the extreme predictions that had sun-worshippers cheering, and said: "We didn't say that and I don't know where the 101 degrees figure came from."

But he did offer a crumb of comfort to sun-lovers and towns like Bournemouth, whose economies rely on good weather during the summer season. "Our longer range forecasts do have a signal for warmer than average temperatures for July and August."

But how much warmer? "It's difficult to say but I guess it will be a bit better than normal."

The fact that the Met Office's prediction coincided with the launch of a new government leaflet, urging people what to do if a heatwave should strike, may, said Mr Gromett, have lead people to believe that a heatwave was imminent.

He explained that the Meteorological Office used data from many different sources, ranging from sea surface temperatures to information from land stations, to predict the weather, but because of the many conflicting factors, it was difficult to predict months ahead with any great levels of accuracy.

Bournemouth specialist, Richard Wild, of independent forecasters Weather-net, agreed. "Let's just say we've all had a chuckle about this story. It's very simple, really, whatever anyone says, you can't predict the weather more than two weeks ahead. It's difficult enough to predict five days ahead. What you can do is predict trends, where you analyse the factors you have, and compare them to ones from years in the past and then you can make predictions based on that."

However, he warned that because of the many variables, even this could lead to what the public regarded as inaccurate forecasting.

"The trouble with all this is that you can predict, say, rain in the afternoon on a Saturday, but other factors can speed up or slow down its arrival, and then a lot of people get upset because their plans are put out."

So, isn't there any hope for a decent summer? "It'll probably be a bit warmer than normal."

And of the future? Richard predicts that the weather in Britain could start to resemble Canada's, with cold winters and hot summers. But don't get too excited because: "It probably won't be in our lifetimes."

First published: May 13