DORSET could be left with just one Tory MP on Friday morning, the last MRP poll ahead of the election has predicted.
South Dorset is predicted to fall to Labour and West Dorset to the Lib Dems.
Mid Dorset and North Poole is also predicted to vote for the Lib Dems.
Both Bournemouth constituencies – West and East – are predicted to go Labour’s way for the first time ever after voters go to polls tomorrow.
Poole, too, could elect a Labour MP, according to Survation’s multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model which uses data from more than 30,000 respondents.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Christchurch – a historically safe Conservative seat – is predicted to keep its Tory MP, making it the only constituency in the county to stay blue.
Nationally, the model’s implied vote share indicates that Labour will win around 42% of the vote, just under twenty percentage points ahead of the Conservative party on 23%.
Could Chris Chope be the only Tory MP on Friday?
Bournemouth East
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 39.3%
Con: 23.3%
Lib Dem: 5.5%
Green: 11.4%
Reform: 17.9%
Other: 2.7%
Bournemouth West
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 41.3%
Con: 24.9%
Lib Dem: 7.9%
Green: 6.4%
Reform: 17.5%
Other: 2.0%
Poole
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 31.0%
Con: 27.9%
Lib Dem: 18.7%
Green: 3.9%
Reform: 16.0%
Other: 2.5%
Christchurch
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 25.9%
Con: 27.8%
Lib Dem: 18.8%
Green: 3.9%
Reform: 20.1%
Other: 3.6%
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 23.0%
Con: 31.4%
Lib Dem: 36.7%
Green: 7.5%
Reform: 0.0%
Other: 1.4%
North Dorset
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 23.1%
Con: 28.6%
Lib Dem: 31.4%
Green: 4.6%
Reform: 11.4%
Other: 0.9%
South Dorset
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 32.3%
Con: 24.7%
Lib Dem: 18.1%
Green: 3.3%
Reform: 20.3%
Other: 1.4%
West Dorset
Estimated Vote Share:
Lab: 18.8%
Con: 26.2%
Lib Dem: 50.6%
Green: 3.0%
Reform: 0.0%
Other: 1.4%
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