How does the third wave of COVID-19 in the UK compare to the second?

Analysis by the Press Association has found that while new cases of Covid-19 are above the level of this stage in wave two, patient numbers and death are significantly lower, though both have seen a small but steady rise in recent weeks.

Other factors have had influence on the “shape” of both waves, such as the lockdown restrictions in place across the country as well as large scale one-off events such as the Euro 2020 football tournament.

1 September 2020 is usually considered to be start of the second wave of coronavirus in the UK. This date is used by the Office for National Statistics for comparing trends in coronavirus mortality rates.

There is no general consensus over when the third wave began, but all the key statistics started to rise in the second half of May 2021, so PA agency has used 17 May as the third wave start date.

Covid-19: Third wave comparison of new cases with second wave (PA)

The average number of daily recorded cases of Covid-19 in the UK stood at 33,574 on August 29 (data for more recent days is incomplete).

This number is higher than at the equivalent point during the second wave (day 105, or December 14), when the average stood at 23,583.

But the “shape” of the current wave so far has been very different from the second wave.

Cases during the second wave began to rise slowly during September and October, peaking at about 25,000 a day, before beginning to decrease in November when lockdown restrictions were tightened in various parts of the UK.

Cases quickly began rising again in December with the spread of the Alpha variant and a loosening of restrictions before Christmas.

The second wave peaked at an average of just over 61,000 cases on day 126 (January 4), then fell sharply as the UK went back into full lockdown.

In comparison, wave 3 has taken place with almost no restrictions in the UK, as well as the more transmissible Delta variant.

This led to a sharp rise in new cases during late June and early July, peaking at an average of nearly 50,000 a day, coinciding with the Euro 2020 football tournament which saw large crowds of people mixing at stadiums, pubs and other venues.

It was at about day 100 in the second wave that cases had just begun their Alpha-fuelled rise, however.

This means we should see third-wave cases drop below the second-wave level in the next couple of weeks.

The chance does still remain that the third wave of cases could eventually be higher than the Euro 2020 spike, or even surpass the peak of the second wave.

The autumn could bring a surge in cases driven by a new variant, or by more mixing of people at school and at work, or by a drop in levels of immunity provided by vaccines.

But while the third wave has already seen cases reach levels higher than those in the early stage of the second wave, the same is not true for the volume of hospital patients or deaths.

Hospital patients

Covid-19: Third wave hospital patients comparison with second wave (PA)

The number of patients in hospital in the UK with Covid-19 stood at 7,596 on September 1 – the most recent date for which figures are available.

At the equivalent point in wave two of the virus (day 108, or December 17 2020), patient numbers stood at 18,970, more than twice as high.

Patient numbers began to rise sharply from around day 116 of the second wave (25 December), peaking at 39,254 on day 140 (18 January 2021).

This was heighted with the spread of the Alpha variant, combined with a relaxation in levels of restrictions across the UK (the second lockdown in England ended on December 2).

Vaccinations were still at early stages of administration, with first doses being given on 8 December 2020.

However, today about 64% of the UK population is now fully vaccinated against Covid-19, with vaccines estimated to have prevented at least 143,600 hospital admissions in England alone.

Little or no restrictions concerning socialising and hygiene are currently in place, events involving large crowds – such as music festivals and sporting fixtures – are happening for the first time since the pandemic began, and schools are returning for a new term.

There is certainly the potential for hospital numbers to carry on rising, but how far and how fast is unclear.

Deaths

Covid-19: Third wave deaths comparison with second wave (PA)

The average number of deaths each day of people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 stood at 106 on 26 August (data for more recent days is incomplete).

At the equivalent point in wave two of the virus (day 102, or 11 December), average daily deaths stood at 429, more than four times as high.

Deaths during the third wave so far have remained consistently well below those seen during the second wave.

This once more highlights the success of vaccination, with figures for England suggesting the vaccines have directly prevented between 102,500 and 109,500 deaths.

There has been an increase in the average number of deaths since the third wave began.

But the rise has been slow and the numbers are still at a very low level: from eight deaths on day one (17 May) to 25 deaths by day 50 (5 July), and 107 deaths by day 100 (24 August).

As with hospital patients, there is the potential for these numbers to carry on rising and at a faster rate.