LOCKDOWN has been ‘pretty effective’ in reducing coronavirus cases in Dorset with cases falling by nearly 75 per cent during this period.
The county has been under a second nationwide lockdown since Thursday, November 2 to curb the spread of Covid-19 after an alarming increase of cases across the country.
While Dorset had below-average case rates, the county was under lockdown for 28 days and saw its non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues closed but some businesses were able to remain open.
Coronavirus infections fell by 30 per cent in England over almost a fortnight during the second national lockdown, according to Imperial College London’s React study.
The county enters Tier 2 restrictions today (Wednesday, December 2) ahead of the busy Christmas period.
Lockdown ‘pretty effective’ in decreasing coronavirus cases in Dorset
Sam Crowe, director of Public Health for Dorset and Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Councils, shared a series of graphs during a public briefing on Thursday, November 26.
The graphs showed low case numbers following the first lockdown and during the Summer, where there was a sharp rise in coronavirus cases in September. He explained that a lockdown was needed to reduce contact with others as much as possible.
Citing a graph which showed a decline of cases in both council areas during the second lockdown, he said: “You can see just how quickly cases have begun to fall as we have had that second national lockdown which has been pretty effective in reducing social mixing and infection rates.”
While the second lockdown did not have the same restrictions as the first lockdown, it was still effective in reducing coronavirus across Dorset and nationally.
Cases decreased by nearly three quarters during lockdown
Cases across Dorset decreased by 70 per cent during lockdown, despite an early spike during November.
On the first day of lockdown, 205 people tested positive for coronavirus – 144 cases in the BCP Council area and 61 cases in the Dorset Council area.
The peak of coronavirus cases in Dorset occurred on Monday, November 9 after 85 cases were recorded in Dorset Council area while BCP Council area reported 164 cases. This total of 249 cases could however be explained by the lag of reporting cases from the previous weekend.
But from this point, cases gradually fell. The case rate also fell too, as more and more areas in Dorset started to record less coronavirus cases.
On Tuesday, December 1, cases had fallen to just 61 across the county – 14 in Dorset Council area and BCP Council area saw 47 people test positive.
The statistics suggest that the lockdown has worked in reducing the spread of coronavirus across the county. This reduction could also be due to how the Dorset Council area is predominately rural with its approximate 375,000 population spread across multiple towns, parishes and villages while BCP Council area is more developed and has a higher population.
Covid-19 related admissions within Dorset County Hospital have fallen – but it's a different picture in other Dorset hospitals
Alastair Hutchinson, chief medical officer at Dorset County Hospital, spoke on BBC Solent on Tuesday, December 1 and observed there had been a drop in coronavirus patients in the hospital, with only three Covid patients on Monday, November 30.
He said: “Within hospital, the numbers within Dorset County Hospital, which is mid to west of the county, are very low.
“In fact on Monday, we were down to only three inpatient cases (with coronavirus) so that is very encouraging.
“It is a different story in Poole and Bournemouth but everywhere we can see lockdown has had an effect and cases are coming down.”
He noted that the 30 per cent fall in cases nationally was “not fantastic but a good improvement” prior to figures seen before lockdown.
The focus for his hospital and others is to limit the number of deaths and serious illnesses caused by Covid-19, with a vaccine nearing rollout.
Professor Hutchinson said: “Now we know there is a vaccine on the horizon, then every death or serious illness that occurs over the next few weeks as a result of Covid feels even more poignant knowing that once the vaccine is out and people are being vaccinated, these occurrences will be unnecessary.
“I agree with the Government that now is not the time to relax (the rules) too much because the ultimate fix to this problem is really quite close now.”
Hospital admissions for coronavirus across Dorset on Thursday, November 5 were at 114 patients but rose to 146 patients on Tuesday, November 24, according to the latest available data from NHS England.
If Covid-19 cases are declining, why is Dorset in Tier 2? And why is Dorset Council area not in Tier 1?
Fears have been raised by residents that the separate Dorset Council and BCP Council areas were “lumped together” despite the differing case rates in both areas.
The five factors used to determine tiers include case detection rates in all age groups, case detection rates in the over 60s, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, pressure on the NHS, and the positivity rate.
Mr Crowe explained that Dorset has been placed in Tier 2 due to its high cases among over 60s and coronavirus patients in Dorset hospitals.
He noted that cases among the over 60s “is high but it is coming down” and approximately 140 to 155 people in Dorset hospitals with coronavirus last week.
Aiden Dunn, executive director for corporate development at Dorset Council, said: “It is not something we are able to negotiate and it is determined by the Government.
“Our populations, where they live and work are across the boundaries and the community meets together.
"I do not think it is a surprise to be in the same category, both councils are trying hard to work and get down to Tier 1 as soon as possible."
What Dorset needs to do to get out of Tier 2
While there was “disappointment” from Dorset Council leader Spencer Flower about the county being in Tier 2, health figures said there is a plan to get Dorset into Tier 1.
A key factor in reducing coronavirus cases across Dorset is limiting social mixing and meeting other households and ensuring people do not come into contact with people over 60-years-old.
Alongside this, the number of coronavirus patients in hospitals would need to fall.
Mr Crowe added that the public must continue to wash their hands, follow social distancing, and wear face masks.
He said: “As hard as that is, we have to do all we can to stop Covid from spreading to older age groups.
“As infection rates come down, we have to observe social distancing as much as possible, remember the importance of hand hygiene, and above all, wear face coverings and masks in enclosed spaces.”
If infection rates continue to fall, Public Health Dorset will be optimistic that they can enter Tier 1 in mid-December.
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